At first glance, it seems easy enough.
Figure out your spending needs. Divide by the safe withdrawal rate (SWR).
Done – your FIRE number is staring you in the face.
But is it?
Inspired by a couple of reader comments on this post, let’s have a look at seven classic mistakes many people make when figuring out their FIRE number.
Mistake #1: Miscalculating Spending Needs
A lot of folks get hung up on the safe withdrawal rate (we will get to it later).
But what about your actual spending needs in “retirement”?
If there’s one sure thing in life, it’s that your spending patterns in retirement will not be the same as today.
That being said, your current expenditures can be a very helpful starting point to help answer the question.
Have a look at where your money is going today – and then ask yourself:
How will my lifestyle change in retirement?
- Will you still have mortgage payments to make, or will your house be fully paid off by then?
- Alternatively, are you / will you be renting your primary residence?
- Will you continue living where you currently do, or will you move elsewhere?
- Is that new location cheaper or more expensive versus where you live today?
- If you have kids, will they still be living with you?
- If not, will you be providing them with any financial support?
- What will your lifestyle look like once you hit financial independence?
- Will you ditch an expensive commute? Is there more travel on the cards?
- Are you planning to take up any (expensive) hobbies?
- Will you need to pay for your own health insurance?
We are just scratching the surface here and there are lots of questions to answer.
But it is exactly this kind of detailed thinking that will allow you to come up with an accurate starting point for your FIRE number.
Mistake #2: Forgetting About Inflation
Let’s say you’ve figured out that you need $50k to support your desired lifestyle once you retire.
The challenge, of course, is that it’s $50k in today’s money. And thanks to inflation, that same lifestyle will end up costing more with every year that passes.
I’ve previously covered inflation in detail.
That being said, here’s a handy illustration of what a “$50k lifestyle” costs, adjusted for various rates of inflation:
In 20 years, depending on the inflation rate, that same $50k lifestyle will cost anywhere from $74k to $110k per year.
For those more mathematically inclined, the calculation is:
Estimated spending needs today * (1 + inflation rate) ^ number of years to FI = Spending needs in the future
For example, if you need $50k in today’s money to retire, plan to retire in ten years, and expect inflation of 2%, you will need:
$50,000 * (1 + 0.02) ^ 10 = $60,950.
If that’s too complicated, just use excel – or refer to the graph above.
Mistake #3: Not Including Additional Sources Of Income
Being the skeptic that I am, I don’t include any governmental pension income in my estimates.
I’m decades away from “official” retirement, the retirement age keeps moving further out, and with the government finances the way they are, I’m just not confident I’ll ever get a return on those taxes I am paying.
That being said, if you are closer to retirement (or have a higher degree of confidence in your government), you should account for your pension income as part of the calculation.
The way to do it is to subtract it from your future spending needs.
That is, if you think you’ll need $61k/year in ten years – but your pension will be $10k/year, then you only need your investments to provide $51k of income.
That being said, you don’t want to make mistake #4 below:
Mistake #4: Ignoring Taxes
Sad but true. Once you achieve financial independence, taxes will still be a part of your life.
Everyone has a very unique tax situation, depending on a multitude of factors.
In addition, tax rules change all the time (and are bound to change yet again in light of the Covid pandemic).
Hence, it’s tough to provide generic advice on how to approach your taxes in retirement.
That being said, here are some general principles to follow:
First of all, make the effort to understand your taxes today.
It’s a boring, but also a highly effective way to get rich. Trust me, it’s worth the effort.
Secondly, estimate your sources of income in retirement.
Is it drawing down on tax-advantaged accounts (i.e. ISAs)? If so, that money is tax-free.
Is it income from dividends or capital gains? Then it will be taxed at the respective tax rates, unless you hold the investments in your tax-advantaged accounts (which is why I bang on about ISAs and Lifetime ISAs all the time here).
Is it your UK workplace pension? Then you get 25% in a tax-free lump sum, and everything else is taxed at your marginal tax rate in the year of withdrawal.
Is it the state pension income? Once again, this gets taxed at your marginal tax rate.
Finally, you need to take a view on how the tax rates will evolve going forward.
Will capital gains taxes go up? Will income tax rates change?
You don’t need a complicated model and hundreds of scenarios.
Equally, you don’t want your ignorance of taxes to torpedo your dream of financial independence.
Mistake #5: Including House Equity In Your Net Worth
What I have seen many people do is take their net worth number, multiply it by 4% (or any other SWR), and assume this is their projected income in retirement.
Which is totally fine, of course, assuming your net worth number excludes the equity in your home.
Think about it this way: if you have a $1m net worth BUT $300k of that is your paid-off home, you only have $700k of accessible investments.
That is, unless you plan to move out and sell your home.
Now, downsizing and moving away may well be the plan in retirement. But if you do that, you also need to account for the cost of housing wherever it is that you move to.
And if you are planning to stay put, you can only count on your investment pot as a source of income (unless you plan to tap the equity in your home with a reverse mortgage).
Mistake #6: Forgetting Some Of Your Investments Are Not Accessible (Yet)
This is a simple one.
You can be a pension millionaire, or have a ton of money in your 401(k), but that money may be out of your reach for years, if not decades.
In that case, no early retirement for you – unless you’ve got other sources of capital you can tap.
Which doesn’t necessarily leave you in a bad place. Just make sure you plan accordingly.
Mistake #7: Assuming A Far Too Low SWR Rate
Historically, the working assumption for the safe withdrawal rate has been to use 4%.
More recently, there’s been a chorus of voices arguing for a much lower rate, on account of lower growth, zero yields, and a variety of other factors.
It’s good to be conservative. That being said, don’t forget that even a 4% withdrawal rate implies your money will last for 25 years – assuming zero returns on your investment portfolio.
Alternatively, taking 2% out of your investment pot every year means your money will last 50 years.
In other words, make an assumption you are comfortable with – but don’t end up in a place where even having millions isn’t enough.
The above list is by no means comprehensive.
There are many other considerations related to nailing down your FIRE number with greater precision (and you are welcome to add your own in the comments).
That being said, avoiding the seven mistakes above will take you 95% of the way to getting as accurate a FIRE number as possible.
And for most of us, that might well be enough.
Thank you for reading!
PS: You may also want to check out the posts below:
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Banker On FIRE is an M&A (mergers and acquisitions) investment banker. I am passionate about capital markets, behavioural economics, financial independence, and living the best life possible.
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